July 2025 Economic Insights White Paper

Executive Summary

Freight volumes dipped again in June, resulting in continued softness in truck tonnage, but signals of stabilization are emerging. Spot rates appear to have found their floor, and Cass data points to rising average freight costs, signaling a potential rate rebound ahead. Staying nimble and cost-aware is critical as these shifts take shape.

What’s Ahead (30–60 Days)

If rate cuts materialize, warehousing demand may rise as inventory strategies shift earlier in the quarter. Delays at Southern California ports could escalate, and reefer activity is set to intensify with seasonal produce and back-to-school surges. Acting ahead of the curve may offer stronger negotiating power and more efficient positioning.

Quick Wins

With LTL carriers still operating below capacity, now’s a prime window to leverage multimodal or volume bundling strategies. East and Gulf Coast port activity offers opportunities to bypass potential West Coast slowdowns. Staying proactive with seasonal freight planning and ensuring alignment across operations and carriers will help secure reliability and cost control.

Regional Check-In

Texas & Midwest:

Steady reefer demand, particularly food and beverage, presents an opportunity for forward-contracting lanes to lock in costs.

West Coast:

Import volumes are improving, but delays at LA/LB ports may escalate. Engage transload partners early and monitor container dwell times.

Southeast:

Capacity remains balanced with stable rates. Consider increasing volume through this region to optimize margins and reduce transit risk.

U.S. Container Imports Rebound to 2.26M in June Amid Global Trade Pressures

Source | Descartes

• Month-over-Month: Rose 1.8%, rebounding after May’s sharp drop.
• Year-over-Year: Up 11.7% compared to June 2024
• Key Dynamics:
  • Imports from China flat (+0.4%), reflecting ongoing tariff headwinds.
  • West Coast ports regained volume; LA and Long Beach saw reduced delays.
  • East and Gulf Coast ports experienced slight slowdowns in share and performance.

Logistics Managers’ Index Climbs to 60.3 in June as Transportation Prices Surge

Source | the-lmi.com

• Month-over-Month: Dropped slightly to 57.9, down 1.5 points from May’s 59.4.
• Year-over-Year: Up significantly from June 2024’s reading of 45.6, showing strengthened supply chain activity.
• Key Drivers:

  • Inventory Levels: Declined to 53.9 (-3.2)

  • Inventory Costs: Rose to 73.4 (+1.1)

  • Warehousing Utilization: Slightly lower at 65.8 (-0.4)

  • Transportation Utilization: Dropped to 53.3 (-1.6)

  • Transportation Prices: Climbed to 66.4 (+4.1)

Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.0% in June, inching closer to expansion.

Source | ISM.com

• New Orders: 46.4%, down 1.2 points—weakest in three months.
• Production: 50.3%, up 4.9 points—back in expansion territory.
• Employment: 45.0%, down 1.8 points—ongoing hiring cutbacks.
• Prices Index: 69.7%, up 0.3 points—raw-material inflation remains high.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Dips to 113.3 in June

Source | Trucking.org

• Month-over-Month: Down 0.4%, a second straight decline from May’s slight dip
• Year-over-Year: Slight softening by .02%
• Quarterly Performance: Q2 ended essentially flat versus Q1 (+0.2%), underscoring ongoing volatility
• Not-Seasonally Adjusted Index: Registered 114.9 in June, down from 116.2 in May

Retail & Food Services Sales 

Source | Census.gov

• Month-over-Month: Rose 0.1%, following May’s 0.3% increase.

• Year-over-Year: Grew 2.3%, showing continued resilience in consumer spending.

• Non-store Retailers: Increased 1.2% MoM, suggesting e-commerce is regaining momentum.

• Food Services & Drinking Places: Ticked up 0.2%, supported by summer travel and dining trends.

Cass Freight Index Trends

Source | Cassinfo.com

• Month-over-Month: Shipments declined 0.9%, marking a second straight monthly dip.

• Year-over-Year: Down 2.8%, reflecting lingering softness in freight volumes.

• Expenditures: Edged up 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY, the second consecutive annual increase.

• Inferred Freight Rates: Climbed 1.3% MoM and jumped 5.5% YoY, reinforcing upward pricing pressure.