Every experienced shipper eventually encounters it: freight that seemed routine suddenly costs more and takes longer to cover as the calendar approaches the end of the month, the end of the quarter, or especially the end of the year. Rates spike, trucks disappear, and timelines tighten. But why does this happen, and what can shippers do to stay ahead of it?
This phenomenon is not random. It is the result of financial incentives, capacity dynamics, and behavioral shifts among drivers that consistently align with calendar deadlines.
Why Carriers Raise Prices at These Times
Financial Deadlines Drive Priorities
Carriers and brokers often operate under revenue targets that align with monthly, quarterly, or annual business cycles. As those deadlines approach, they prioritize high-margin freight that helps them meet financial goals. Lower-paying or operationally complex loads tend to be pushed aside unless additional incentives are offered.
In a study on market behavior and seasonality, Liu (2019) observed that “spikes in volatility and sudden declines are often tied to end-of-month behavior due to pressure from scheduled payouts and reporting cycles.” This pressure translates into more strategic selectivity by carriers, who gravitate toward freight that supports financial performance metrics.
Capacity Crunch from Volume Surges
As manufacturers, retailers, and distributors race to close their own books, freight volume spikes. This increase in outbound orders compresses available capacity, driving up the load-to-truck ratio. When demand exceeds supply within a short timeframe, carriers gain pricing leverage.
Market data from FreightWaves and other sources consistently shows that tender rejections and spot rates increase significantly during the final weeks of each quarter. For example, December 2023 saw spot rates rise 17 percent on average compared to the monthly baseline.
Driver Hours and Payroll Incentives
Drivers, like carriers, are often aiming to maximize earnings near the end of a cycle. Many are incentivized through performance bonuses or weekly mileage thresholds. As a result, they favor high-paying lanes or routes with efficient reload opportunities.
Hours of Service (HOS) limitations also play a role. If a driver is nearing the cap on allowable drive time for the week, they will prioritize freight that fits their remaining hours. Standard-rate freight that doesn’t align operationally may be skipped over.
End-of-Year Operational Complexity
Year-end introduces additional complexity that makes freight coverage more difficult:
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Holiday schedules reduce available shipping days
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Winter weather introduces risk and delays
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Carriers often pull trucks out of circulation for maintenance
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Some fleets limit operations to reduce taxable income or align with annual insurance adjustments
These factors reduce capacity even further, increasing both rates and uncertainty.
How Shippers Can Mitigate the Impact
Plan and Book Early
Avoid waiting until the last few days of the month or quarter. Instead, secure capacity earlier, when supply is more stable. Even if this requires holding inventory slightly longer, it reduces exposure to last-minute rate spikes and availability gaps.
Build and Maintain Strong Carrier Relationships
Carriers prioritize shippers who provide consistent freight throughout the year. If you have helped keep their trucks running during slower periods, you are more likely to be prioritized when the market tightens. Relationship equity still matters, even in a transactional industry.
Provide Flexible Pickup and Delivery Windows
Loads with flexible pickup or delivery windows are easier for carriers to cover. A wider appointment range or openness to alternative timing makes your freight more attractive, especially during peak periods when every hour matters.
Diversify Modal Strategies
When truckload markets are constrained, consider alternative transport options:
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LTL (Less Than Truckload) for smaller shipments
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Intermodal rail for long-haul moves
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Regional carriers for short-distance or overflow coverage
Having multiple routing strategies helps reduce reliance on a single freight mode and enhances resilience during crunch periods.
Use Technology to Expand Capacity Visibility
Digital freight platforms and modern Transportation Management Systems (TMS) allow shippers to access a broader pool of carriers, track real-time rates, and automate fallback strategies. These tools provide actionable visibility, enabling better decision-making during market volatility.
Final Thoughts
End-of-month, quarter-end, and year-end freight disruptions are not anomalies. They are embedded in how carriers, brokers, and shippers operate. Understanding the operational and financial incentives that drive behavior during these cycles is the first step toward navigating them more effectively.
Shippers that plan ahead, stay flexible, and maintain strategic relationships are best positioned to avoid delays and inflated costs. In an industry where timing and margins matter, preparedness is a competitive advantage.