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Monthly Musings – June 2025

Industry Insights / June 26, 2025

Economic Insights White Paper

U.S. Container Imports Slipped to 2.18M TEUs

Source | Descartes

  • Month-over-Month: Fell 9.7% from May’s peak.
  • Year-over-Year: Declined 7.2%, though still above 2019 levels.
  • China Imports: Dropped sharply—20.8% MoM and 28.5% YoY.
  • Port Dynamics: West Coast ports experienced steep declines; East/Gulf Coast ports gained share.

  • Transit Delays: Steady overall, though delays at LA and LB ticked up a bit.

The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) Rises to 59.4 in May

Source | the-lmi.com

  • Month-over-Month: Increased +0.6 points, marking the second consecutive month of growth. 

  • Inventory Levels: Slowed to 51.5 (–5.6), showing near stabilization post-Q1 build-up.

  • Inventory Costs: Surged to 78.4 (+2.8), the highest since October 2022, reflecting the costly holding of existing stock.

  • Warehousing Capacity: Flat at 50.0 (–5.4), indicating limited additional space availability.

  • Warehousing Prices: Stayed elevated at 72.1 (–0.2), driven by tight capacity.

  • Transportation Capacity: Held steady at 54.7 (–0.0), reflecting balanced availability.

  • Transportation Utilization: Eased to 52.6 (–0.7), the slowest growth since November 2023.

  • Transportation Prices: Moderately increased to 63.1 (+0.8), indicating continued moderate upward pricing pressure.

Manufacturing PMI Contracts to 48.5 in May

Source | ISM.com

  • New Orders: Increased slightly to 47.6 (+0.4)

  • Production: Fell to 45.4 (-0.4)

  • Employment: Improved modestly to 46.8 (+0.3)

  • Supplier Deliveries: Slowed further at 56.1 (+0.9)

  • Inventories: Declined to 46.7 (-4.1)

  • Customers’ Inventories: Dropped to 47.1 (-0.4)

  • Prices Index: Fell to 57.0 (-4.4)

  • Backlog of Orders: Decreased to 42.4 (-0.6)

  • New Export Orders: Dropped sharply to 40.1 (-4.3)

  • Imports: Contracted significantly to 39.9 (-7.2)

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Softens in May

Source | Trucking.org

  • Month-over-Month: Declined by 0.1%, reflecting softening freight volumes.
  • Year-over-Year: Dropped 1.3%, marking the first annual contraction in 2025.
  • Quarterly Performance: Tonnage rose 1.2% in Q2 so far compared to Q1, showing slight improvement over early-year softness.
  • Not Seasonally Adjusted Index: Measured 116.2, up 2.9% from April, driven by spring shipping demand. 

Retail and Food Services Sales Slip to $715.4 B in May

Source | Census.gov

  • Month‑over‑Month: Decreased 0.9% from April, reversing the prior month’s slight gain.

  • Year‑over‑Year: Increased 3.3%, indicating sustained consumer spending.

  • Key Drivers: Non‑store retailers surged 8.3% YoY, while food services and drinking places rose 5.3% YoY.

Cass Freight Index Shows Modest Growth in April

Source | Cassinfo.com

  • Shipments: Fell 0.4% month-over-month and declined 4.0% year-over-year, showing a dip in freight volume during a typically strong month.
  • Expenditures: Climbed 1.4% month-over-month and rose 0.8% year-over-year, marking the first annual gain after over two years of declines.
  • Inferred Freight Rates: Increased 1.8% month-over-month (4.8% SA) and jumped 5.0% year-over-year, indicating higher average cost per shipment.